Prediction Melbourne could begin to run short of water by 2028

Melbourne could begin to experience chronic water shortages within about a decade, even if the desalination plant is cranked up to its full capacity, as climate change and population growth rapidly deplete the city's dams.

Demand for water could begin to exceed supply by 2028, triggering tough water restrictions and a costly 25 per cent boost to the capacity of the desalination plant, under a worst-case scenario modelled by Melbourne's water corporations.

This scenario suggests the city must take major steps in the next few years to guard Melbourne's water storages from reaching dangerously low levels that could put it on a permanent drought footing.

Demand for water in and around Melbourne could grow by about 75 per cent in the next 40 years, while flows into the state's catchments could decrease by more than 40 per cent, according to projections published this month by City West Water, Yarra Valley Water and South East Water.

According to the three state-owned corporations' 50-year urban water strategies, Melbourne's water supply is secure for another 10 to 15 years, "even under high climate change and high population growth scenarios", largely because of the desalination plant.

Beyond that date, supply becomes uncertain.

Environment Victoria's acting chief executive, Nicholas Aberle​, said the $6 billion desalination plant had given Melbourne a 10-year buffer to get its water supply under control.

"The risk is that we don't take this warning seriously until it's too late," Mr Aberle said. "We need to use that 10 years really wisely and to get serious about harvesting stormwater and re-using water for all sorts of purposes."

Evidence suggests, however, that many Melburnians have begun to forget the lessons learned during the severe millennium drought of 1997 to 2009.

Average residential water consumption rose to 166 litres a person a day in 2015-16, the highest level seen since the drought ended, figures from Melbourne Water show. It dipped slightly to 162 litres a day in 2016-17.

Melbourne Water spokesman Joseph Keller said Melburnians were "encouraged to limit their consumption to 155 litres per person per day", in line with the government's Target 155 campaign.

This year has been dry with below-average rainfall in five of the first six months.


Melbourne's dams were 72 per cent full at the start of summer last year and are 62 per cent full now.

The millennium drought depleted Melbourne's water storages to 25 per cent, the lowest seen since the 1970s, before the vast Thomson dam was commissioned.

The water strategies predict that droughts like it may occur more frequently as the climate changes.

The potential shortage by 2028 is one of three possible scenarios modelled by Melbourne's water corporations.

If population growth and climate change occur more incrementally, it's predicted demand for water will exceed supply by about 2043.


If Victoria avoids the impacts of climate change, and water consumption does not rise significantly, the city's supply will be secure for at least another 50 years.

The strategies, which are based on guidelines for climate change adaptation set by the Andrews government, effectively rule out building another dam in Victoria, because it would exact too great a toll on the environment.

"The removal of water from rivers, and the construction of any associated infrastructure such as weirs or dams, can have significant environmental and social impacts," the strategies state.

"For these reasons, it is difficult to justify further investment in infrastructure to harvest more water from rivers."

Coalition water spokesman Peter Walsh criticised the advice against ever building another dam, arguing it could limit the ability to store water during future wet periods.


"If you look at climate scenarios in future projections, it's likely that there will be more extreme events, wet and dry," Mr Walsh said. "So we should be storing water for the dry times. You never say never."

What is recommended is boosting the $6 billion desalination plant, already one of the world's largest, from 1500 billion litres a year to 2000 billion litres, even though this would bring an increase in household water bills.

Water bills rose $12 last year because of the first order of 50 billion litres from the Wonthaggi plant.

One way the water corporations have already begun to boost water security is by recycling sewage into non-drinking water.

At the Western Treatment Plant on Melbourne's south-western periphery, City West Water's West Wyndham recycled water project has begun to provide recycled water to new outer suburban housing estates.

A 20-megalitre tank feeds water to about 5000 homes in and around Werribee, via purple pipes that signify it is not for drinking.

The water is a "shandy" of 50 per cent recycled water and 50 per cent drinking water. A salt-reduction plant is being built so the tank can provide 100 per cent recycled water.

It will eventually service about 40,000 properties in Wyndham, one of Australia's fastest-growing municipalities.

The $205 million project will save Melbourne an estimated 250 million litres of water a year, City West Water said.

"As our city experiences growth, we wanted to position ourselves as providing a modern, long-term and secure supply for our residents," the corporation's general manager of strategy and planning, Cameron FitzGerald, said.

It's a significant amount of water but it is also a relative drop in the ocean; about 0.1 per cent of Melbourne's current annual demand of 272 billion litres a year.

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Rainwater harvesting could save Australia billions

Implementing water efficiency measures in planning policy could help save Australia billions of dollars, improve water resilience and help reduce the emissions of housing stock, according to the Rainwater Harvesting Association Australia, but most state governments are dragging the chain.

Citing work from Dr Peter Coombes from Urban Water Cycle Solutions, RHAA executive officer Michael Smit said that applying water efficient measures, such as rainwater harvesting systems, into new buildings in Victoria could reduce the net present costs of water cycle management to 2050 by $6 billion, and save $3.5 billion in South East Queensland between now and 2056.

Savings break down
Speaking to The Fifth Estate, Dr Coombes said: “When you turn the tap on in your house, it comes from a dam or another water source through big pumps and pipes and storage reservoirs until it gets to your house. The water you don’t use is then discharged by another set of pipes and infrastructure to the wastewater system.

“But if you put a rainwater harvesting tank on that house, you’re using rainwater rather than getting it from the water supply system. That means a certain proportion of water is no longer travelling through all the centralised water infrastructure, so you’re deferring that cost, and that saves money.”

For example, water prices in Brisbane are currently around $3.40 for 1000 litres, but the cost of supplying water to different parts of the city, including storage, pumping, treatment and testing, means the real cost of delivering water could be over $8 a kilolitre. If the cost of delivery was taken out of account, it could save $4.6 per kilolitres.

Mr Smit said: “If the marginal cost of rainwater harvesting paid by the homeowner is $2.50/kL there is a significant community benefit. The small benefit at a household scale becomes considerable at the neighbourhood scale, significant at a city scale and massive at a regional scale measured over 20 or 30 years.”

And, as well as cost savings in delivery, rainwater harvesting could also reduce stormwater infrastructure costs and flood damage by “millions of dollars”.

Dr Coombes said rainwater tanks were “storing water, rather than it being runoff into the system”, which also helped to protect waterways and wetlands.

“So there is a double benefit of changing behaviour.”

Lack of state action
Mr Smit has argued that the financial and environmental savings that can be had from rainwater harvesting could be realised if states implement water and energy saving targets to all new buildings and significant renovations.

However, only NSW to date has implemented such a policy – through the Building Sustainability Index (BASIX, which sets sustainability targets for water and energy as well as minimum performance levels for the thermal comfort of new developments).

To date, BASIX has resulted in rainwater harvesting being implemented in 90 per cent of all new dwellings in NSW and delivered a 40 per cent water and energy saving in building performance since 2004.

Why states aren’t motivated to act

So why have other states been dragging their heels? According to Dr Coombes, most states are aware of the findings, but are not motivated to implement such a scheme.

“No one analyses the whole system together; it’s partial accounting,” he said. “The states are more interested in the revenue earned from water monopolies than counting for the full cost of what they’re doing.

“Water companies don’t have to worry about how much things cost because someone else picks up the tab… Customers just get a price increase from the regulator and mums and dads pay for it.

“But I’ve worked out that in each of the capital cities, these [rainwater harvesting] ideas will reduce the water demand by a fair bit, thereby reducing the revenue earned by the water monopolies. It could reduce the cost by twice as much.”

He added: “Most states know about this work, but it needs to be higher profile because it’s something we need to do as a nation. The BASIX program shows that. But to do that, you need to take a whole society perspective rather than revenue.

“It takes a pretty strong public-based conversation to get to a better answer for society.”

Sustainable Buildings policy outline

As such, the RHAA, backed by Dr Coombes, is calling on state governments to implement a Sustainable Buildings policy.

This would include:
a 40 per cent reduction in mains water use as compared to 2013 levels in all new and significantly renovated dwellings
a 25 per cent reduction in demand for grid electricity as compared to 2013 levels for all new and significantly renovated dwellings.
a state environmental planning policy that stipulates water and energy targets for dwellings, supported by a simple web-enabled planning approval tool and model design guidelines
an evidence-based planning policy to avoid substantial economic costs and environmental impacts
independent monitoring and assessments, including annual reviews and progress reports.

“A public responsibility to promote this policy”

Mr Smit said: “Australia will need to build about four million new households by 2036, a 50 per cent increase from 2011.

“We suggest that those houses should be considerably better than the houses we build now and that there is an existing low risk policy to achieve this. Given the public savings are measured in the billions of dollars we believe we have a public responsibility to promote this policy.”

Dr Coombes added: “From my findings, I fully agree with the need to have a national conversation about this. It’s more than just about the revenue and single infrastructure agenda of a small group of organisations.

“We need a water policy discussion in place that represents more of society.”

It appears that state governments are already sitting up and taking note, with Queensland’s water minister Mark Bailey reportedly calling a departmental briefing on the findings of a report last month.


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Warning water rate rise to drain hip pockets

A Melbourne-based legal centre has flagged concerns about plans by Gippsland Water to raise its rates by two per cent following a submission to the Essential Services Commission.


Gippsland Water's proposal, part of a review into water companies across the state, revealed it was one of only a handful of service providers in Victoria planning to increase its annual rates over the five-year regulatory period.

According to the Consumer Action Law Centre, the increase means residential owner-occupier bills could increase by $40 in the first year.

Consumer Action Law Centre policy officer Patrick Sloyan said the rise could hurt the hip-pocket of vulnerable and low-income families and individuals across the region.

"In the first year there's a bit of a jump, it's just over $40 more each year for an owner-occupier and then in the following four years it raises by $8 each year," Mr Sloyan said.

"This is what Gippsland Water proposed to the ESC and the regulator has amended Gippsland Water's slightly and reduced the revenue requirement that Gippsland Water can make through water prices."

Earlier in the month community members had the opportunity to voice their concerns at a forum run by the Essential Services Commission.


"One lady jumped out and she was living on Centrelink payments. She's a Moe resident who owns her own home and she was really worried about the price rises and what that might mean for her," Mr Sloyan said.


"Obviously water bills are generally not the most expensive bills but in the scheme of perhaps rising council rates and energy prices it all adds up.

"We're concerned that these price rises will make life tough for individuals and families in the Valley. We would like prices to remain flat or falling if possible."

The ESC proposed reducing the price increase originally proposed by Gippsland Water in its draft decision which is still open for review.

Gippsland Water managing director Sarah Cumming said the rate rise was due to "rising electricity costs and a changing socio-economic climate".

"While these place upward pressure on bills, we have, and continue to work hard to find smarter ways of doing business so we keep prices stable," Ms Cumming said.

"Our customers depend on us to deliver safe and reliable water and sewerage services. As a state-owned and local water corporation, our submission only reflects the costs necessary to maintain a sustainable business."

A final decision on water rate prices will be released by the ESC in June.

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Heavy rain and cool temperatures tipped for Melbourne by the end of the week

VICTORIANS have been warned to brace for a wintry commute home today as a massive cold front brings heavy rain and gale force winds.

But Melbourne is unlikely to face the worst conditions until tomorrow.

The city woke to one of its coldest mornings of the year — with some suburbs feeling like 0C.

APRIL HEATWAVE HITS CITY

INSIDE LOOK AT HOW MELBOURNE’S WEATHER IS FORECAST

Snow has fallen in Victoria’s Alps with Mt Hotham locals greeted with snowfall at 5am this morning.

More than 50cm of snow is expected to fall in alpine regions in the next 48 hours.

Snow dusted Mount William at the Grampians and there are reports of snow at Mount Buller.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning with strong winds and thunderstorms expected to hit the state this afternoon and continue through the weekend.

Severe weather manager Steven McGibbony said “cold, biting” conditions could take Victorians by surprise with some areas to cop up to 150mm of rainfall and 100km/h winds.

“I’m sure it (will come) as quite a shock to a lot of people after what has been a relatively warm autumn so far,” he said.

“With the rainfall and these strong winds, it’s going to feel very wintry and very cold.”

Mr McGibbony said the cold front had moved over Victoria last night bringing cold, unstable air.

“In the wake of that ... after some very much below-average rainfall over the last three months we are likely to see some soaking rainfall developing across the central and eastern parts of Victoria,” he said.

The strong winds and rain are expected to build in the state’s west this afternoon and move towards the central regions, including Melbourne, tomorrow.

The blustery conditions are likely to move to East Gippsland on Saturday, with the region tipped to receive up to 150mm of rain.

The Bureau has issued a flood warning for the Gippsland and Upper Yarra catchment areas.

State Emergency Services chief operations officer Tim Wiebusch called on motorists to take care to avoid repeating last weekend’s horror, in which eight Victorians lost their lives on the roads.

“Last weekend saw a significant number of fatalities on our roads (so) we really are appealing to Victorians to take it easy ... make sure that you’re alert to your conditions,” he said.

“The heavy rain will bring challenging road conditions so don’t attempt to drive through flood waters — it can take as little as 15cm, the height of a pencil, for a car to float.”

Campers should avoid setting up near rivers or under trees, Mr Wiebusch said.

And homeowners should clear gutters and stormwater drains to prevent flooding, he said.

“SES volunteers will be on standby across the state ready to respond to any requests for emergency assistance from the public,” he said.

Check weather alerts and public safety information at emergency.vic.gov.au
CHILLY START TO THE DAY IN CITY

MELBOURNE woke to one of its coldest mornings of the year — with some suburbs feeling like 0C.
And the worst is yet to come, with hail, thunderstorms and heavy rain expected in the next 24 hours.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Michael Efron said Melbourne felt like it was five degrees this morning.

Avalon and Melbourne Airport’s apparent temperature ‘felt like’ it was zero and two degrees respectively.

“Across the state we are struggling to see temperatures in the double figures,” he said earlier this morning.

Mr Efron said hail was expected in any showers to pass through Melbourne later today.

Thunderstorms and lightening have already been reported along Victoria’s southwest coast.

A cold weather front hit Melbourne just after 10.30pm last night, dropping temperatures around the state.

“The cold front brought some chilly conditions, with 8mm of rain recorded in the city and up to 15mm in the outer suburbs overnight,” senior forecaster Dean Stewart said.

“Melbourne will see a mixed bag today with between 3-8mm of rain forecast with a chance of sunshine breaking through later in the day.”

Mr Stewart said despite a chilly top of 13C and a slight chance of hail or thunderstorms the worst of the weather was yet to come.

“A low pressure system will intensify later today bringing stronger rain and winds tomorrow,” he said.

“We’re currently expecting 10-25mm of rain tomorrow (Friday) with strong southerly winds to boot.”

Across the state overnight, Port Ferry saw the most rain with 27mm while Wilson’s Prom saw 24mm and Warrnambool had 21mm of rain.
The cold front is expected to bring about a month’s worth of rain by the end of the week.

Up to 80mm of rain is tipped to bucket down on Melbourne when a cold front sends the mercury plunging across the state.

After a month of unseasonably mild temperatures and little rainfall, Victoria is set to dive into winter with a maximum temperature of 16C forecast over the weekend in the state capital.

For footy fans, Friday night’s MCG clash between Hawthorn and Sydney is set to be a wet affair, with high winds and heavy rainfall predicted.

Chilly conditions will be followed by a low pressure system that will bring heavy rainfall to southern Victoria.

Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Richard Russell said between 25mm and 80mm of rain was predicted to fall on Melbourne over Friday and Saturday.

“The May average is 55mm to 60mm so the potential is you could see that entire amount over the course of three days,” he said.

“We’ll see a band of rain develop across Victoria with extensive rainfall but there’s a lack of confidence on when exactly this will hit.

“It looks like a low pressure system will develop in the Bass Strait on Friday and from there it will impact eastern Tasmania and southern parts of the state.”

Doonas and heaters are likely to be pulled out of closets from Thursday, with the bureau forecasting a low of 7C and top of 13C.

WE WON’T LISTEN TO NEXT STORM FORECAST

Mr Russell said Melburnians would notice the sharp drop in temperature.

“There is a very significant mass of cold air well south of Western Australia that is tracking towards us,” he said.

“As that initial band arrives, we could even see snow down to 700m or 800m.

“That will be the first main impact but, really, it is just the start of a pretty decent weather system developing from the end of the week,” he said.

Temperatures will ease slightly with heavier rainfall and tops of 15C and 16C tipped over Saturday and Sunday.

Mr Russell said there was a chance of flooding, with hydrologists monitoring the weather system to determine where the hardest rain will fall.

“If those sort of (rainfall) numbers were to come off, you would get some flood watches out over the next few days,” he said.

“It’s likely they will put out flood watches once they hone in on a better range of rainfall.”

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Warning water rate rise to drain hip pockets

 Melbourne-based legal centre has flagged concerns about plans by Gippsland Water to raise its rates by two per cent following a submission to the Essential Services Commission.

Gippsland Water's proposal, part of a review into water companies across the state, revealed it was one of only a handful of service providers in Victoria planning to increase its annual rates over the five-year regulatory period.

According to the Consumer Action Law Centre, the increase means residential owner-occupier bills could increase by $40 in the first year.

Consumer Action Law Centre policy officer Patrick Sloyan said the rise could hurt the hip-pocket of vulnerable and low-income families and individuals across the region.

"In the first year there's a bit of a jump, it's just over $40 more each year for an owner-occupier and then in the following four years it raises by $8 each year," Mr Sloyan said.

"This is what Gippsland Water proposed to the ESC and the regulator has amended Gippsland Water's slightly and reduced the revenue requirement that Gippsland Water can make through water prices."

Earlier in the month community members had the opportunity to voice their concerns at a forum run by the Essential Services Commission.

"One lady jumped out and she was living on Centrelink payments. She's a Moe resident who owns her own home and she was really worried about the price rises and what that might mean for her," Mr Sloyan said.

"Obviously water bills are generally not the most expensive bills but in the scheme of perhaps rising council rates and energy prices it all adds up.

"We're concerned that these price rises will make life tough for individuals and families in the Valley. We would like prices to remain flat or falling if possible."

The ESC proposed reducing the price increase originally proposed by Gippsland Water in its draft decision which is still open for review.

Gippsland Water managing director Sarah Cumming said the rate rise was due to "rising electricity costs and a changing socio-economic climate".

"While these place upward pressure on bills, we have, and continue to work hard to find smarter ways of doing business so we keep prices stable," Ms Cumming said.

"Our customers depend on us to deliver safe and reliable water and sewerage services. As a state-owned and local water corporation, our submission only reflects the costs necessary to maintain a sustainable business."

A final decision on water rate prices will be released by the ESC in June.

Read More: Original Article